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Friday, March 7, 2008

Momentum everywhere

Watching the battle for the democratic nomination in the United States unfold, one can't help but be captivated. The 'process-oriented' approach of Barack Obama vs. the 'tested and true' policy approach of Hillary Clinton is incredibly compelling. Watching the shifts in momentum as the campaigns progress, I can't help but be reminded of this market volatility that we're experiencing. In the beginning, it was Clinton as the odds-on favorite. Then, Obama won Iowa, and then the momentum shifted in his favour capped by 11 straight wins. This all changed this past Tuesday when Clinton snapped back with wins in Ohio, Rhode Island and Texas. With a great chance of capturing the superdelegates due to the deep Clintonian roots within the party, it's back to Clinton.

A parallel can be drawn between Clinton and Obama versus the bull and bear markets. Watch the index explode upwards, analysts and economists are speaking of the market's resiliency. A slowdown, sure...but no recession. Watch sharp drops in the index, and we're talking of the disaster of the sub-prime mess and being embroiled in a US recession. Feel free to designate whether you feel Obama or Clinton is the bull, as there will be a loser in this campaign. Regardless, folks, we are in a bear market, which will show resilience and overcome this sub-prime fiasco....and, yes, it is very likely we will see a Clinton-Obama or an Obama-Clinton Democratic ticket (don't ask me which one).

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